The economic outlook for the UK in 2025 presents a mixed picture, with expectations of modest growth tempered by persistent inflationary pressures.

Growth Projections

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its forecast for UK economic growth in 2025 upward to 1.7%, citing increased government spending as a key driver.

This adjustment reflects the UK's resilience amid global economic uncertainties and aligns with its broader strategy to stimulate growth through fiscal policies and structural reforms.

Inflation Concerns

Despite the positive growth outlook, inflation remains a significant concern. The OECD projects that UK inflation will average 2.7% in 2025, the highest among G7 nations. This is attributed to strong wage growth and elevated services inflation, indicating persistent domestic price pressures.

Monetary Policy

In response to these dynamics, the Bank of England (BoE) has begun adjusting its monetary policy. In November 2024, the BoE reduced its interest rate from 5% to 4.75%, marking the second cut since 2020. However, the BoE has signalled that future rate reductions will be gradual, given the rising inflation expectations.

Analysts anticipate that the BoE will continue to lower rates cautiously throughout 2025, potentially reaching 3.75% by year-end.

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt

The UK's fiscal policy is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape. The March 2024 budget introduced measures aimed at stimulating growth, including increased public spending and tax adjustments. However, these initiatives have raised concerns about fiscal sustainability, with public debt projected to rise to 92.8% of GDP in 2025.

The OECD warns that the UK's stretched public finances may limit its capacity to address potential economic shocks in the future.

Labour Market and Business Sentiment

The labour market is expected to experience moderate improvements, with businesses expressing cautious optimism. Surveys indicate that a significant proportion of firms anticipate revenue growth and increased hiring in 2025, supporting the government's efforts to revive economic growth.

However, challenges such as rising national insurance contributions and persistent inflation may temper this optimism.

Conclusion

In summary, the UK's economic outlook for 2025 suggests a period of modest growth accompanied by persistent inflationary pressures. The interplay between fiscal stimulus and monetary policy adjustments will be crucial in navigating these challenges. While increased government spending may bolster economic activity, concerns about inflation and public debt sustainability remain pertinent. Stakeholders, including policymakers and businesses, will need to balance these factors to foster a stable and sustainable economic environment in the coming year.

1 February 2025 – Due date for Corporation Tax payable for the year ended 30 April 2024.

19 February 2025 – PAYE and NIC deductions due for month ended 5 February 2025. (If you pay your tax electronically the due date is 22 February 2025)

19 February 2025 – Filing deadline for the CIS300 monthly return for the month ended 5 February 2025.

19 February 2025 – CIS tax deducted for the month ended 5 February 2025 is payable by today.

1 March 2025 – Due date for Corporation Tax due for the year ended 31 May 2024.

2 March 2025 – Self-Assessment tax for 2023-24 paid after this date will incur a 5% surcharge unless liabilities are cleared by 1 April 2025, or an agreement has been reached with HMRC under their time to pay facility by the same date.

19 March 2025 – PAYE and NIC deductions due for month ended 5 March 2025 (If you pay your tax electronically the due date is 22 March 2025).

19 March 2025 – Filing deadline for the CIS300 monthly return for the month ended 5 March 2025.

19 March 2025 – CIS tax deducted for the month ended 5 March 2025 is payable by today.

The cash basis is now the default for self-employed income reporting. Learn about the key updates, opt-out options, and how this simplified method can ease your self-assessment obligations with HMRC.

The cash basis is used by sole traders and other unincorporated businesses to determine their income and expenses for self-assessment. This simplified method can ease record-keeping and income reporting to HMRC, whilst still providing a suitable measure of profits for many businesses.

Since 6 April 2024, the cash basis has become the default method for calculating income and expenses for self-employed individuals and partnerships when filing their Income Tax self-assessment return.

Businesses that prefer traditional accruals accounting or who are ineligible for the cash basis, must opt out of the cash basis when submitting their self-assessment return. The first return requiring this decision will be the 2024-25 return, due by 31 January 2026.

There have also been a number of other changes to the cash basis that took effect for the current 2024-25 tax year. This includes the following:

• The removal of the turnover thresholds for businesses to use the cash basis.
• The removal of the restrictions on using relief for losses made in the cash basis, aligning the rules with accruals.
• Interest restrictions have been removed so both cash basis and accruals accounting are subject to the same tax rules.
• People with more than one business will be able to choose whether they use the cash basis or accruals accounting for each business they have, rather than having to pick one method for all their businesses.

The cash basis is not available to limited companies and limited liability partnerships.

Capital Gains Tax rates have increased for disposals from 30 October 2024, with further changes ahead. Stay informed on the updated rates for assets, property, and reliefs to optimise your tax planning.

We would like to remind our readers of the updated Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates that apply to gains realised on or after 30 October 2024. The main CGT rates for assets other than residential property and carried interest has increased to 18% (from 10%) for Income Tax basic rate payers, and to 24% (from 20%) for Income Tax higher rate payers.

For trustees and personal representatives, the CGT rate will has also increased to 24% (from 20%) for disposals made on or after 30 October 2024. The CGT rates for residential property disposals (18% and 24%) remain unchanged.

The CGT rate for Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors’ Relief will increase from 10% to 14% for disposals made on or after 6 April 2025. A further increase to 18% will apply for disposals made on or after 6 April 2026. The lifetime limit for Business Asset Disposal Relief remains unchanged at £1 million, but the lifetime limit for Investors’ Relief will be reduced from £10 million to £1 million for qualifying disposals made on or after 30 October 2024. Special provisions apply to certain contracts entered into before 30 October 2024.

Additionally, the normal and higher rates of CGT on carried interest (currently 18% and 28%, respectively) will rise to a single unified rate of 32% from 6 April 2025. From April 2026, carried interest will be subject to a broader package of policy changes, which will be announced at a later date.

Over one million parents have now claimed Child Benefit online or via the HMRC app, with 87% of new claims using this speedy service. If you've recently had a baby or a child joins your family, applying online ensures you get support quickly—right when you need it most.

HMRC’s Director General for Customer Services, said:

"Having a baby is a busy and expensive time but claiming Child Benefit online or via the app means you’ll get cash in your bank account as soon as possible. Claim now and you could get your first payment in time for your baby’s first Christmas. Download the HMRC app today."

You can apply for Child Benefit starting the day after you register your child’s birth or when a child comes to live with you. Claims can be backdated up to 12 weeks. Applying online is usually the fastest way to complete your claim.

If you are unable to claim online, you can complete the Child Benefit form CH2 and send it to the Child Benefit Office. The address can be found on the form. If you are claiming for more than two children, you will need to complete the additional child form CH2(CS) and send it with your CH2 form. Alternatively, you can contact HMRC by phone if online or postal methods are not suitable.

Child Benefit is typically available for children who move to the UK. However, there are certain requirements that must be met to claim. If a child receiving Child Benefit moves permanently abroad, HMRC must be notified as soon as possible.

The child benefit rates for the only or eldest child in a family is currently £25.60 a week and the weekly rate for all other children is £16.95. The rates are set to increase to £26.05 and £17.25 respectively from April 2025.