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Budgeting and forecasting in a period of lower confidence

Many business owners are entering the new year with a sense of caution. Confidence across the UK business community has softened, driven by continued cost pressures, uncertainty over tax policy and higher financing costs. In this environment, reviewing budgets and forecasts is not just a routine exercise, it is an essential management discipline.

For many businesses, budgets prepared twelve months ago may no longer reflect reality. Energy costs, staffing expenses, supplier prices and interest charges have all shifted, sometimes significantly. A refreshed budget allows owners to reassess their cost base, identify areas of pressure early and make informed decisions rather than reacting late to problems as they arise.

Forecasting is equally important. Cash flow forecasts, in particular, help businesses understand whether they have sufficient headroom to absorb slower sales, delayed customer payments or unexpected expenditure. Regular forecasting can highlight pinch points well in advance, giving time to adjust payment terms, renegotiate facilities or defer non-essential spending.

This is also a good opportunity to test assumptions. What happens if sales fall by 10%, or if wages rise faster than expected. Scenario planning helps owners see the impact of different outcomes and decide which risks need active management. It also provides a more robust basis for discussions with lenders, investors or advisers.

Reviewing budgets is not about pessimism. It is about clarity. Businesses that understand their numbers are better placed to protect margins, prioritise profitable activities and make confident decisions even in uncertain conditions.

We can support this process by helping to update forecasts, interpret the figures and translate them into practical actions. Regular reviews throughout the year can turn budgeting from a static document into a valuable decision-making tool.

Business rates support and cash flow for hospitality businesses

Hospitality businesses continue to operate in a challenging environment. Rising wage costs, energy prices and supply chain pressures have all placed strain on margins. Against this backdrop, recent business rates support measures offer welcome relief and can have a meaningful impact on cash flow and operating costs.

For many pubs, restaurants and cafés, business rates represent a significant fixed cost. Support measures introduced following the latest revaluation aim to reduce the immediate burden, particularly for smaller and mid-sized premises. In practical terms, this can mean lower monthly outgoings and improved short-term cash flow.

However, the benefit is not automatic. Reliefs and discounts often depend on eligibility criteria, correct property classifications and timely applications. Businesses that assume the reduction will simply appear in their bill may miss out or receive less relief than expected. Reviewing rates bills carefully remains essential.

Improved cash flow from rates support can provide breathing space, but it should also prompt forward planning. Some businesses may choose to reinvest the saving into staff retention, marketing or modest refurbishments. Others may prioritise rebuilding reserves that were eroded during recent difficult trading periods.

It is also important to remember that rates support may be time-limited. Temporary reliefs can reduce costs in the short term but should not be relied upon indefinitely. Incorporating revised rates into cash flow forecasts helps owners understand the longer-term position once reliefs taper or end.

We can help by reviewing eligibility, checking bills for accuracy and modelling the impact of rates changes on cash flow. For hospitality businesses operating on tight margins, even modest savings can make a noticeable difference when properly planned for and managed.

What is a UK property business

The income generated from land or property in the UK is treated as arising from a UK property business. The underlying legislation defines this broadly to include all activities that produce rental income or similar receipts from UK land, whether the taxpayer is subject to Income Tax or Corporation Tax.

Although property income is treated as coming from a business, landlords are not generally regarded as trading unless they meet the normal trading tests. As a result, most trading-related tax reliefs, such as certain Capital Gains Tax reliefs, do not usually apply. Property business profits are instead calculated using principles similar to those for trading profits.

Since the 2017–18 tax year, the cash basis is the default method for calculating profits and losses for most individual landlords. However, companies and some other landlords must still use Generally Accepted Accounting Practice (GAAP).

A wide range of persons can carry on a UK property business, including individuals, partnerships, trustees, companies and non-residents with UK property income. Using an agent does not change who is treated as carrying on the business.

In most cases, all UK property income is treated as part of one single property business, allowing income and expenses across different properties to be combined. UK and overseas property, however, are treated as separate businesses. Activities carried out in different legal capacities, such as personally, as a partner or as a trustee, are also treated as separate property businesses for tax purposes.

What is a salaried member of an LLP

The salaried member legislation applies to certain members of a Limited Liability Partnership (LLP) whose terms of membership are more like an employee than a partner. To be a salaried member, the individual must perform services for the LLP in their capacity as a member.

The legislation uses a three-part test. If all three conditions apply, the member is classified as a salaried member for tax purposes:

  • Condition A – Disguised salary: At least 80% of the member’s pay is fixed, or any variable amounts do not vary in line with the LLP’s overall profits or losses.
  • Condition B – Lack of influence: The member has no significant influence over the LLP’s affairs.
  • Condition C – Insufficient capital stake: The member’s capital contribution is less than 25% of their expected reward package.

If a member can show that at least one condition does not apply, they continue to be treated as a partner.

The rules do not apply to:

  • Companies
  • Individuals who do no more than invest money
  • Individuals who no longer provide services for the LLP but continue to receive a profit share

HMRC examples illustrate that remuneration linked to overall firm profits, rather than individual performance, does not create a salaried member situation. Professional qualifications or experience are also irrelevant, what counts is the member’s role and risk exposure in the LLP.

Car and travel costs if self employed

If you are self-employed, it is important to understand which car and travel costs can be claimed.

You can claim allowable business expenses for car, van, or travel costs, which reduce your taxable profit. Typical allowable costs include:

  • Vehicle insurance
  • Repairs and servicing
  • Fuel
  • Parking
  • Hire charges
  • Vehicle tax and licence fees
  • Breakdown cover
  • Train, bus, tram, air, and taxi fares
  • Hotel rooms
  • Meals on overnight business trips

You cannot claim for:

  • Non-business driving or travel costs
  • Fines or penalty charges
  • Personal travel, including commuting between home and a regular workplace, is generally not allowable.

For vehicle costs, you may choose between claiming actual costs or using HMRC’s simplified expenses which is a flat-rate allowance for mileage.

If you buy a vehicle for your business, how you claim the cost depends on your accounting method. Under traditional accounting, you can claim capital allowances on the purchase cost. If you use cash basis accounting, you can also claim capital allowances as long as you are not using simplified expenses. For all other types of vehicles or associated costs, you can claim them as allowable business expenses.