Author: Glenn

As we look ahead to 2026, there is growing speculation about how the Bank of England will manage interest rates during what many economists believe will be a period of calmer inflation, steadier wage growth and a more predictable economic backdrop. After several years shaped by sharp price rises, supply chain shocks and policy responses that required rapid increases to the Bank Rate, the outlook for the coming year appears more settled and this is creating a sense that borrowing costs may edge downwards rather than upwards.

The current Bank Rate stands at around four per cent following a series of cuts through 2024 and 2025 as inflation eased gradually. Policymakers have indicated that they remain alert to any resurgence in inflationary pressure, yet they also recognise that the period of high inflation is now behind us. If this trend continues and inflation drifts closer to the Bank’s long term target, it will give the Monetary Policy Committee more room to make modest reductions during 2026. Many forecasters expect something in the region of a quarter to half a percentage point of cuts during the year, although the timing will depend heavily on the data released each quarter.

For households and businesses, this would create a slightly more comfortable lending environment. Mortgage borrowers on variable deals may feel some relief as repayments fall a little and businesses that rely on flexible credit facilities could find that their financing costs ease. Fixed mortgage rates may also become more attractive if lenders anticipate further gradual reductions. However, the broader economic impact is unlikely to be dramatic, since the Bank is not expected to deliver large or rapid cuts. The emphasis is more likely to remain on steady adjustments that avoid disrupting confidence or encouraging excessive borrowing.

It is worth noting that a full return to the ultra-low interest rate environment seen before the pandemic is not expected. Structural changes in the UK economy, global supply conditions and the government’s fiscal position all point towards a future in which interest rates remain higher than the levels seen in the decade prior to 2020. Even so, a move towards slightly lower borrowing costs in 2026 would be consistent with a maturing recovery and a gradual balancing of supply and demand across the economy.

Overall, the most probable outcome for 2026 is a measured reduction in interest rates that supports economic stability without risking a renewed surge in inflation.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves announced increases to the Minimum Wage rates on the eve of the Budget. The Chancellor confirmed that the government has accepted in full the proposals of the Low Pay Commission (LPC) for increasing minimum wage rates from 1 April 2026.

The National Living Wage (NLW) rate will increase from £12.21 to £12.71 on 1 April 2026 and represents an increase of 50p or 4.1%. The NLW is the minimum hourly rate that must be paid to those aged 21 or over. The increase represents a pay rise of £900 a year for someone working full-time and earning the NLW.

It was also announced that the National Minimum Wage (NMW) – for 18-20 year olds – will increase from £10.00 to £10.85 an hour. This is an 8.5% increase and will see younger workers having their pay boosted by up to £1,500 next year. This increase is part of moves to narrow the gap in wage rates for 18-20 years olds and the NLW and ultimately create a single adult wage rate for all those aged 18 and up.

The NMW rates for 16 to 17 years old will increase from £7.55 to £8.00 – an increase of 45p or 6% per hour – from next April. The Apprentice Rate will mirror this increase in line with earlier recommendations by the LPC.

At the Budget, the government also announced two new measures aimed at supporting young people’s employment and skills development.

1. The Youth Guarantee: Jobs Guarantee Scheme will provide a six-month paid work placement for eligible 18-21 year group, who have been on Universal Credit and searching for work for at least 18 months. This scheme will cover 100% of employment costs for 25 hours a week at the minimum wage, alongside other support measures.
2. The Youth Guarantee and Growth and Skills Levy will allocate more than £1.5 billion over the spending review period to improve employment and skills support. This funding will help ensure that young people have access to high-quality training opportunities and streamline the apprenticeship system to make it more efficient.

The Chancellor has confirmed a series of duty increases on tobacco, vaping liquid, and alcohol that will take effect over the next year, with new rates intended to balance public health concerns with support for producers and the wider hospitality sector.

As part of the Autumn Budget measures the Chancellor announced that the duty rates on tobacco products were increased by 2% above the rate of inflation (based on RPI) effective from 6pm on 26 November 2025. The one-off increase of £2.20 per 100 cigarettes or 50g of other tobacco products and annual uprating of tobacco duty by RPI + 2% next year will take effect from 1 October 2026

It was also announced as part of last year’s Budget measures that the government will introduce a new duty at a flat rate excise duty of £2.20 per 10ml on all vaping liquid which will come into effect from 1 October 2026.

The Chancellor also confirmed that effective from 1 February 2026, the government will increase the Alcohol Duty rates in line with Retail Price Index inflation. The Small Producer Relief discounts will also be uprated, so eligible small producers receive relative duty reductions as now. These changes will also take effect from 1 February 2026.

The government considered various views, from cutting or freezing alcohol duties to increasing them above inflation. The decision they announced seeks to balance supporting alcohol producers and the hospitality sector with the need to reduce alcohol related harm.

The Chancellor has kept the main pension allowances unchanged but has confirmed a new cap on salary sacrifice arrangements that will apply from April 2029.

There had been heated speculation that the Chancellor would change the pension rules to help the government raise taxes, but no changes were announced to the annual allowance (which remains at £60,000) or to the carry-forward rules which can use up previous year’s annual allowances. The lump sum allowance has also remained unchanged at £268,275.

However, the Chancellor announced changes to the salary sacrifice arrangements for pension contributions. Salary sacrifice allows employees to reduce part of their salary or bonus in exchange for pension contributions, which is tax-efficient and helps save for retirement. However, this arrangement has disproportionately benefited higher earners with salary sacrifice costs expected to rise from £2.8 billion in 2016-17 to £8 billion by 2030-31.

From April 2029, the government plans to introduce a cap on salary sacrifice contributions which will limit the amount that can be sacrificed without incurring National Insurance Contributions (NICs) to £2,000 per employee. Salary sacrifice contributions above this amount will be subject to employer and employee NICs. Pension contributions that are not part of a salary sacrifice will remain unchanged.

The Chancellor reaffirmed the government's commitment to maintaining the Triple Lock on the State Pension throughout this parliament. This means that in April 2026, the State Pension will increase by 4.8%. The Triple Lock ensures that the State Pension rises by the highest of three measures: inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%, helping to protect pensioners' income against rising costs of living.

Also, starting from 6 April 2027, the government will close a loophole that allows individuals to use pensions for inheritance tax (IHT) planning. Under the new rules, any unspent pension pots will be brought within the scope of IHT.

In the Autumn Budget, the Chancellor had been expected to increase fuel duty rates. However, she has extended the fuel duty cut for a further 6 months to help support households and businesses. 

The Chancellor said ‘I know that the cost of travelling to and from work is still too expensive, so I am extending the 5p cut until September 2026. And because I know that changes in wholesale prices are not always passed onto motorists, I am bringing in new rules to mandate petrol forecourts to share real-time prices through a new Fuel Finder.’ 

This means that the temporary cut in the rates of fuel duty introduced at Spring Statement in March 2022, and extended multiple times is to be extended for a further 6 months until 31 August 2026.

The planned inflation-based increase for 2026-27 will be cancelled. Together with the launch of Fuel Finder, these measures are expected to save families £89 next year compared to previous plans.