Author: Glenn

Food and energy costs remain central concerns for households and businesses because they influence everything from wages to margins to day to day operating decisions. Inflation is easing compared to the volatility of the last few years, but the picture for the next twelve months is still mixed. Prices appear set to rise more slowly, yet neither category is likely to fall in any meaningful way.

Food price outlook

Food prices surged during the supply chain disruptions of 2021 to 2023 and were pushed higher again by wage pressures, transport costs and global shipping instability. Although the pace of increase has slowed during the past year, prices remain high. Many clients still question why food costs have not dropped as headline inflation falls. The reason is that the underlying conditions that drove those increases have not disappeared. Agriculture, food production, and distribution still face labour shortages, higher input costs, and ongoing uncertainty in global trade routes.

The most likely outcome for the coming year is a gradual easing in the rate of food inflation rather than a reduction in prices. Supermarkets report calmer supply chains and producers appear more willing to absorb cost pressures in order to protect sales volumes. Better harvests in some regions and lower freight costs should also help. These factors together should keep the next year more stable than the recent past.

Energy price outlook

Energy prices have been among the most unpredictable elements of the recent inflation cycle. While the extreme spikes have eased, the underlying global influences remain. The UK is particularly exposed because it relies heavily on imported gas and is tied to international pricing. Global gas markets continue to react to geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and variations in European storage levels. These variables explain why energy pricing still carries a degree of uncertainty.

However, the direction for next year looks a little steadier.

What this means for business planning

The next year is unlikely to bring substantial falls in food or energy prices, but the environment should feel less pressured. This increased stability provides an opportunity for better budgeting and more confident forecasting. Hospitality businesses and manufacturers may find it easier to plan pricing strategies, menus and supply arrangements. Broader stability also supports decisions on energy efficiency projects since assumptions about future savings appear more reliable.

As we look ahead to 2026, there is growing speculation about how the Bank of England will manage interest rates during what many economists believe will be a period of calmer inflation, steadier wage growth and a more predictable economic backdrop. After several years shaped by sharp price rises, supply chain shocks and policy responses that required rapid increases to the Bank Rate, the outlook for the coming year appears more settled and this is creating a sense that borrowing costs may edge downwards rather than upwards.

The current Bank Rate stands at around four per cent following a series of cuts through 2024 and 2025 as inflation eased gradually. Policymakers have indicated that they remain alert to any resurgence in inflationary pressure, yet they also recognise that the period of high inflation is now behind us. If this trend continues and inflation drifts closer to the Bank’s long term target, it will give the Monetary Policy Committee more room to make modest reductions during 2026. Many forecasters expect something in the region of a quarter to half a percentage point of cuts during the year, although the timing will depend heavily on the data released each quarter.

For households and businesses, this would create a slightly more comfortable lending environment. Mortgage borrowers on variable deals may feel some relief as repayments fall a little and businesses that rely on flexible credit facilities could find that their financing costs ease. Fixed mortgage rates may also become more attractive if lenders anticipate further gradual reductions. However, the broader economic impact is unlikely to be dramatic, since the Bank is not expected to deliver large or rapid cuts. The emphasis is more likely to remain on steady adjustments that avoid disrupting confidence or encouraging excessive borrowing.

It is worth noting that a full return to the ultra-low interest rate environment seen before the pandemic is not expected. Structural changes in the UK economy, global supply conditions and the government’s fiscal position all point towards a future in which interest rates remain higher than the levels seen in the decade prior to 2020. Even so, a move towards slightly lower borrowing costs in 2026 would be consistent with a maturing recovery and a gradual balancing of supply and demand across the economy.

Overall, the most probable outcome for 2026 is a measured reduction in interest rates that supports economic stability without risking a renewed surge in inflation.

The Chancellor has confirmed a series of duty increases on tobacco, vaping liquid, and alcohol that will take effect over the next year, with new rates intended to balance public health concerns with support for producers and the wider hospitality sector.

As part of the Autumn Budget measures the Chancellor announced that the duty rates on tobacco products were increased by 2% above the rate of inflation (based on RPI) effective from 6pm on 26 November 2025. The one-off increase of £2.20 per 100 cigarettes or 50g of other tobacco products and annual uprating of tobacco duty by RPI + 2% next year will take effect from 1 October 2026

It was also announced as part of last year’s Budget measures that the government will introduce a new duty at a flat rate excise duty of £2.20 per 10ml on all vaping liquid which will come into effect from 1 October 2026.

The Chancellor also confirmed that effective from 1 February 2026, the government will increase the Alcohol Duty rates in line with Retail Price Index inflation. The Small Producer Relief discounts will also be uprated, so eligible small producers receive relative duty reductions as now. These changes will also take effect from 1 February 2026.

The government considered various views, from cutting or freezing alcohol duties to increasing them above inflation. The decision they announced seeks to balance supporting alcohol producers and the hospitality sector with the need to reduce alcohol related harm.

The Chancellor has kept the main pension allowances unchanged but has confirmed a new cap on salary sacrifice arrangements that will apply from April 2029.

There had been heated speculation that the Chancellor would change the pension rules to help the government raise taxes, but no changes were announced to the annual allowance (which remains at £60,000) or to the carry-forward rules which can use up previous year’s annual allowances. The lump sum allowance has also remained unchanged at £268,275.

However, the Chancellor announced changes to the salary sacrifice arrangements for pension contributions. Salary sacrifice allows employees to reduce part of their salary or bonus in exchange for pension contributions, which is tax-efficient and helps save for retirement. However, this arrangement has disproportionately benefited higher earners with salary sacrifice costs expected to rise from £2.8 billion in 2016-17 to £8 billion by 2030-31.

From April 2029, the government plans to introduce a cap on salary sacrifice contributions which will limit the amount that can be sacrificed without incurring National Insurance Contributions (NICs) to £2,000 per employee. Salary sacrifice contributions above this amount will be subject to employer and employee NICs. Pension contributions that are not part of a salary sacrifice will remain unchanged.

The Chancellor reaffirmed the government's commitment to maintaining the Triple Lock on the State Pension throughout this parliament. This means that in April 2026, the State Pension will increase by 4.8%. The Triple Lock ensures that the State Pension rises by the highest of three measures: inflation, wage growth, or 2.5%, helping to protect pensioners' income against rising costs of living.

Also, starting from 6 April 2027, the government will close a loophole that allows individuals to use pensions for inheritance tax (IHT) planning. Under the new rules, any unspent pension pots will be brought within the scope of IHT.

The chancellor Rachel Reeves announced as part of the Autumn Budget measures that the Income Tax thresholds will be maintained at their current levels for a further three years until April 2031. This will see the personal tax allowance frozen at £12,570 through to April 2031 across the UK. In addition, the higher rate threshold will remain at £50,270 (there are differences in Scotland). National Insurance thresholds will also remain frozen until 2031.

This means that more taxpayers will be pushed into paying higher taxes as income increases at a far faster rate than the frozen tax bands. This phenomenon is known as fiscal drag. The freezing of most of the Income Tax allowance and rates at current levels until 2031 means that many taxpayers will pay more Income Tax as their income increases with no corresponding increases in their allowances and more taxpayers will see their taxable income boosted into the 40%, or 45%, Income Tax bands.

The existing thresholds for the basic rate, higher rates and additional rates of tax have also been frozen where income is derived from employment or self-employment. However, the government will create separate tax rates for property, savings & dividend income.

• Tax on most dividend income will increase by 2% from April 2026. The ordinary rate will rise from 8.75% to 10.75%, and the upper rate from 33.75% to 35.75%. The additional rate will remain unchanged at 39.35%.

The changes to the tax rates for property and savings income will take effect from April 2027.

• From 2027-28, the property basic rate will be 22%, the property higher rate will be 42%, and the property additional rate will be 47%. These rates will apply across England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
• From 2027-28, the savings basic rate will be increased to 22%, the savings higher rate will be increased to 42% and the savings additional rate will be increased to 47%.

The current rules that allow Basic Rate taxpayers to receive £1,000 of interest without paying tax, and Higher Rate taxpayers to receive £500 without paying tax are set to remain as is the Starting Rate for Savings of up to £5,000 for lower earners.